The Dailies Show Preview

At the venerable old age of 78, Oscar should be collecting his pension and going to movies rather than having a film show named after him. But he, as with the rest of us, will be putting on his Sunday best in preparation for the ceremony.

Youth will be represented again in the form of the host. Last year, Chris Rock bombed but perhaps Dave Chappelle would have been the better choice all along? Let’s keep our fingers crossed that Jon Stewart and his six strong team of writers from The Daily Show hit the right notes. A solid start would be the style of humour that a New York Times article achieved this week: it depicted God giving Stewart some seemingly terrible advice (God is actually Billy Crystal wearing a mask). I would imagine that less would be more and if he can walk the line (ahem) between being snarky towards the movies but not the actors then his notices – and subsequent contract negotiations with Comedy Central – will be on the up. The ultimate irony would be if Stewart eventually lands the coveted Late Night slot on CBS currently held by David Letterman – arguably the worst Oscar host in living memory. In short Jon: if Uma and Oprah are in the room, don’t even bother introducing them…

And I shan’t bother to tell you what should win, just what will win. I haven’t seen all the nominated films – who could? - but did go 6 for 6 last year, winning 20 pounds worth of film tokens into the bargain. See you on Sunday for the live blog if the adverts take their toll on us.

BEST ACTOR

Philip Seymour Hoffman: CAPOTE 1/7
Terrence Howard: HUSTLE & FLOW 33/1
Heath Ledger: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN 7/1
Joaquin Phoenix: WALK THE LINE 7/1
David Strathairn: GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK. 25/1



Probably the strongest category, Best Actor actually features three portrayals of celebrities from the 1950s. Before we return to those, the Heath Ledger campaign seems to have run out of gas and in any other year, Howard would have a great chance for his brilliant performance in the underrated ‘Hustle & Flow’. Still, just to be nominated is a big deal and Howard’s time will come. Joaquin Phoenix is excellent as Johnny Cash but was outshone by Reese Witherspoon’s June, which will do for him. David Strathain seems doomed to be the forgotten man this time around, which leaves us with Philip Seymour Hoffman. For a big star, Hoffman is relatively little known; even people who have seen many of his movies can't quite place the name. He has made 38 films, one for every year of his life, some of them too obscure even for the video store but many of them have a level of intensity that stays with you long afterwards: ‘Boogie Nights’, ‘The Big Lebowski’, ‘Happiness’, ‘Magnolia’, ‘State and Main’ and ‘Almost Famous’. Even his walk-ons tended to be scene-stealers. But now something else is happening: leading roles. And he’s never been better than in ‘Capote’. Someone recently noted that he was more adept at being Truman Capote than Capote himself. What’s more, he's apparently said that if he won the Oscar he would bark during his acceptance speech. PSH – get ready to woof.

WILL WIN: PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

George Clooney: SYRIANA 7/4
Matt Dillon: CRASH 9/1
Paul Giamatti: CINDERELLA MAN 5/6
Jake Gyllenhaal: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN 6/1
William Hurt: A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE 25/1



As ever, it’s all about momentum. I believe that the gay cowboys – and their wives – will be going home empty handed whereas the wonderful Paul Giamatti won’t be giving any speeches due to association with telephone thrower Russell Crowe. William Hurt is barely in ‘A History Of Violence’ and despite it being the best English language film of last year, he shouldn’t and won't win the Oscar. As with Ledger, I feel that Dillon’s time has passed: had the awards been last month, the award might have been his. Time for George Clooney to win his first statue then: he’s a darling of the Academy and despite his performance and ‘Syriana’ itself being a messy, confused and over long film with only one decent storyline (Matt Damon and Amanda Peet dealing with the tragic loss of their son), Clooney put on much weight for the role and got badly injured during the filming – two factors which count far more than you can possibly imagine.

WILL WIN: GEORGE CLOONEY

BEST ACTRESS

Judi Dench: MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS 20/1
Felicity Huffman: TRANSAMERICA 5/2
Keira Knightley: PRIDE & PREJUDICE 33/1
Charlize Theron: NORTH COUNTRY 16/1
Reese Witherspoon: WALK THE LINE 2/7



Yet another average year for female actresses. I’m still staggered that Rachel Weisz’s performance only makes the grade in the supporting category. She’s obviously the white Samuel L Jackson circa ‘Pulp Fiction’. We can safely discount the two Brits who did get the nod (though Judi Dench won Supporting Actress for a 7 minute cameo in ‘Shakespeare In Love’ a few years ago so I guess you never really know) and Charlize Theron was surely nominated to add some glamour to the night as ‘North Country’ was supposedly horrible. That leaves Golden Globe winner and Mrs. William H. Macy, Felicity Huffman, up against the radiant Reese Witherspoon. I’m 99% confident that Witherspoon will be victorious: the academy loves a biopic more than a cross dresser and her June Carter is absolutely sensational.

WILL WIN: REESE WITHERSPOON

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams: JUNEBUG 7/1
Catherine Keener: CAPOTE 12/1
Frances McDormand: NORTH COUNTRY 14/1
Rachel Weisz: THE CONSTANT GARDENER 4/9
Michelle Williams: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN 3/1



This should be a rare moment of British triumph on the night along with Wallace & Gromit. I expect Weisz to win for Gardener though am slightly worried that a lack of awards for the film from last week’s Baftas might have a knock on effect. I hear great things about Amy Adams for Junebug; McDormand gets nominated for pretty much everything she appears in and Williams couldn’t get left out for Brokeback. I personally thought Catherine Keener was just as impressive – if not more so - than Weisz but can’t see her Harper Lee winning. And so Weisz it is then. Just.

WILL WIN: RACHEL WEISZ

BEST DIRECTOR

BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN 1/10
CAPOTE 25/1
CRASH 16/1
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK. 7/1
MUNICH 14/1



Quite simply, the easiest award of the night to get right. Ang Lee was awarded the Directors Guild of America for ‘Brokeback Mountain’ and in 51 of the past 57 years, the guild has honoured directors who have gone on to win the Oscar. You might fancy Paul Haggis to do the Best Picture/Director double but you just can’t look past Lee (and as we all remember from 2004’s ‘Hulk’, you won’t like him when he’s Ang Lee…). Usual suspect Steven Spielberg hasn’t got a prayer with the rather pedestrian ‘Munich’, George Clooney can’t expect to win twice in a night and ‘Capote’ can only win for, er, Capote.

WILL WIN: ANG LEE

BEST PICTURE

BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN 1/5
CAPOTE 20/1
CRASH 9/2
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK. 12/1
MUNICH 14/1



Surprise surprise, the same five films are nominated for Best Picture. We can discount ‘Capote’, ‘Good Night…’ and ‘Munich’ for similar reasons to above which means we have a good old-fashioned fight on our hands between ‘Crash’ and ‘Brokeback Mountain’. Shocks are often in evidence at the Oscars and you’ll find one here: the buzz in Hollywood has been mounting for ‘Crash’ these past few months and I can see it knocking off the favoured ‘Brokeback Mountain’. It’s the perfect Best Picture winner for the academy as it raised “important” issues, had an ensemble cast and was set entirely in LA. The fact that it wasn’t the best picture of the year matters little and you’ll be able to add ‘Crash’ to the likes of ‘Rocky’, ‘Ordinary People’, ‘Driving Miss Daisy’, ‘Dances With Wolves’ and ‘Chicago’ as an unworthy winner.

WILL WIN: CRASH

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