Brit Of Alright

After the stunning successes of my Grammy Picks (2 for 6), I'm chancing my arm once again with this evening's Brit Awards in London. The show itself has had many ups and downs over its 26 year history. Mainly downs. Who could ever forget Mick Fleetwood and Samantha Fox bumbling and stumbling their way through the 1989 show? I was 11 years old at the time, had little or no knowledge of what an autocue was, but realised that something was indeed rotten in the state of Denmark. Or, more likely, Alexandra Palace.

I don't think anyone will be claiming that 2005 was a vintage year for British music: for every KT Tunstall and Arctic Monkeys, there's a James Blunt or latest X Factor winner. And they sell far more records. But why the (ongoing) dismissive attitude towards Coldplay? They may not be the most vital or coolest band out there but I remain convinced that they've made two and a half great albums and if you want to be the new U2, your statements and sentiments need to be grandiose, have a healthy nod towards cliché and, in all probability, rhyme wherever possible. Though I still think had they written Aqualung's 'Brighter Than Sunshine' instead of 'What If', we'd be dealing with some serious talent.

Your host for the night is Chris Evans - he with the red hair, continuing career revival and 2nd best April 1st birthday in Britain - and we're promised performances from Kaiser Chiefs, Gorillaz (bet it won't be anywhere as good as their Grammy opener with Madonna), Kanye West and, most impressively, Prince. The Brits might be the Baftas to Hollywood's Oscars (though I grant you - the Baftas already are the Baftas to Hollywood's Oscars) but they're ours so let's celebrate that. And I hear Fleetwood and Fox haven't been let anywhere near an autocue or guest list...

BEST GROUP

Coldplay

Franz Ferdinand

Gorillaz

Hard-Fi

Kaiser Chiefs

Actually, I'm nearly swelling up with pride at these nominees. Franz Ferdinand had arguably the weakest year from these five and I've really rated Hard Fi's singles thus far. The ubiquitous Coldplay clearly deserve inclusion whereas the Kaisers are the nearest thing we have in Blur's continuing absence. And the reason for this hiatus? Why because Damon Albarn is concentrating on his side project as a cartoon character. Their 'Demon Days' has grown on me no end and I'm curious to check them out live. I'm hoping they win something just for the acceptance speech but can't see past Yorkshire for the winner.

WILL WIN: KAISER CHIEFS
SHOULD WIN: GORILLAZ

BRITISH SINGLE

Shayne Ward - That's My Goal

Coldplay - Speed of Sound

James Blunt - You're Beautiful

Tony Christie - Amarillo

Sugababes - Push The Button

The antithesis to Best British Group comes in the form of Best Single. Let's make this as painless as possible: this list has one ace track, one average song and three turkeys. We can at least excuse Tony Christie as it was for charity (mate) but can't go as easy on Shayne Ward. Don't worry, he'll be serving you over priced beers within two years. Sugababes are more interesting away from music if their most recent line-up change is anything to go by (they switch singers as often as Real Madrid bring in managers) and the "Best" song here - 'Speed Of Sound' - hasn't got a hope against the might of Blunt. What's the point in being pithy? He's gonna walk it.

WILL WIN: JAMES BLUNT
SHOULD WIN: COLDPLAY

BRITISH ALBUM

Coldplay - X&Y

Gorillaz - Demon Days

James Blunt - Back To Bedlam

Kaiser Chiefs - Employment

Kate Bush - Aerial

The Indie world is well represented with only Blunt being massively mainstream. Neither of the other four records is truly exceptional and I see a theme of doubles on the night (Blunt, Tunstall) with the Kaisers scoring themselves a debut brace by also nabbing Best British Album. It's packed with singles naggingly addictive enough to hum out loud and your postman probably knows the one that goes "na na na na na na". That's incisive analysis, isn't it? And he'll be whistling it on Thursday.

WILL WIN: KAISER CHIEFS
SHOULD WIN: KAISER CHIEFS

BRITISH MALE

Antony & the Johnsons

Ian Brown

James Blunt

Robbie Williams

Will Young

If you know me, you'll expect me to go for Ian Brown on obvious grounds (i.e. anyone involved with the first Stone Roses album can walk on water) but I'll try not to be so predictable. I've yet to fall for Brown's solo material as it became blatantly clear that his distinctly average vocals were carried by John Squire's incendiary (like, cheers, Lester Bangs) guitar playing. I never "got" Antony either: I know he was born in Chichester but he is in every sense a product of the drag scene here in New York. But if he won a Mercury, I suppose you have to nominate him for a Brit. Amazingly, I find myself hoping that either Will Young or Robbie Williams win this; I realise that Young is a product of the reality system that I despise but his albums have shown signs of maturity. Robbie works along similar lines: the once boy band member with Take That (anyone else remember the NME screaming 'Take Fat And Porky!' a decade ago?) has produced a body of work that is frankly startling (if we keep this in perspective...he had little talent to start with) and I had no problem putting his Greatest Hits on my ipod (though I must point out that the record company sent me them in the first place). And attaching himself to Steven "Tin Tin" Duffy for his most recent release illustrates that he'll be remembered far longer than this year's winner.

WILL WIN: JAMES BLUNT
SHOULD WIN: ROBBIE WILLIAMS

BRITISH FEMALE

Charlotte Church

Kate Bush

KT Tunstall

Katie Melua

Natasha Bedingfield

Regardless of the winner, I remain surprised that Annie Lennox wasn't nominated. I couldn't even say for sure whether she released anything in 2005 but isn't it a no brainer that she appears here? Her peer Kate Bush does turn up though of course she finally did make a new contribution to her canon of work with the confused Ariel. Naturally, it polarized the critics and I think she scares me more than anything else - I can still recall hearing 'Running Up That Hill' as a child and how her voice gave me nightmares. Speaking of which, let's hope neither Katie Melua and Charlotte Church win nor sing on the night, which leaves us with two contenders. Natasha is by far the more talented of the Bedingfields and anyone capable of the lyric, "Read some Byron, Shelley and Keats/Recited it over a hip-hop beat" would usually walk away with any award. But this is KT's night and rightly so. Other postings of mine have raved about her ability and it's pleasing that the early signs suggest the Americans have taken to her so readily.

WILL WIN: KT TUNSTALL
SHOULD WIN: KT TUNSTALL

INTERNATIONAL GROUP/ALBUM

Arcade Fire

Black Eyed Peas (just group)

Green Day

U2

White Stripes

Kanye West (just album)

Madonna (just album)

Allow me to be ever so slightly cynical. As Kanye West is showing up and performing, I'll take that to mean he's going to win Best International Album? I won't overlook U2 all together and imagine they'll take home Best International Group. Personally, I would have dispensed with Black Eyed Peas, Green Day and White Stripes (what, no Rilo Kiley?) but am pleased that Madge gets a nomination for her wonderful album: it's just like having a nightclub in your head. Arcade Fire, meanwhile, look likely to miss out again but I boldly predict that come December 31st 2009, more than one publication will declare 'Funeral' the album of the decade.

WILL WIN: U2/KANYE WEST
SHOULD WIN: ARCADE FIRE/KANYE WEST